ANALYSIS: A96 dualling deadline scrapped - but we already knew
The Scottish Government’s public confirmation that the 2030 deadline for A96 dualling has been abandoned, in fact, offered little new information.
In February, we revealed that Transport Secretary Michael Matheson MSP agreed to scrap this pledge from policy documents more than four years ago.
From that point, until last Thursday, the Scottish Government consistently refused to confirm or deny whether they would stick to the 2030 timescale it announced in 2011.
Internal documents, which we revealed as part of an investigation into A96 dualling, showed that Mr Matheson’s decision came on the same day that a UK Government policy paper imposed significant cuts to Holyrood capital budgets.
Transport Minister Fiona Hyslop’s statement last week, which confirmed the deadline had been scrapped, was to announce the release of outcomes from the A96 Corridor Review.
Outcomes from the Transport Scotland-penned review, agreed as part of the Green and SNP coalition deal in 2021, were in the end released nearly two years late.
The final document argues that ministers should move away from fully dualling the road, and that improvements to the trunk road should be limited to Elgin and Keith bypasses alongside “targeted safety improvements”.
Ms Hyslop said: “It is clear that it will not be possible to dual all of the A96 by 2030.
“The Scottish Government currently favours fully dualling the A96 between Inverness and Aberdeen.
“A consultation on the plans is currently underway.”
She added: “The evidence from the A96 Corridor Review suggests that there may be a different approach to provide alternative solutions with a more cost-effective and affordable budget.”
While opposition politicians raised concerns that the A96 Corridor Review could spell the end of the project since it was launched in 2021, Ms Hyslop’s statement appear to suggest that it was financial pressure - rather than the Green coalition - which felled the 2030 pledge.
Estimating the cost of full dualling as between £2.5 billion and £5 billion, the Transport Minister confirmed that the timescale was being abandoned as a result of “financial pressures”, “constraints of budget” and “capital collapse”.
Our investigation also revealed that less than 0.5 per cent of A96 dualling's price tag had been pledged until 2026 - with further emails showing that Mr Matheson signed off on the removal of budget figures from spending plans despite warnings from civil servants.
As a result, more than £1 billion a year would have needed to be spent on the road to meet the 2030 promise - during a period in which vital projects, including hospitals, were paused indefinitely.
The final part of our investigation also revealed that, despite a modest increase in roads funding within today’s Scottish Budget, an earlier briefing to finance secretary Mairi McAllan revealed that "no funding" before 2026 was available for any A96 dualling sections that might survive the A96 Corridor Review.
We also predicted, correctly, that the outcomes would not be released before the 2024 General Election - denying the public a chance to vote on the plans and this year’s General Election.
That was despite ministers having been advised on the “emerging outcomes” in January this year.
As we await the public’s verdict on the confirmed scrapping of the 2030 deadline and the proposed scrapping of full dualling, one question seems to stand out above all others.
Given the evidence, why did it take the Scottish Government four years to admit that the deadline had been abandoned?
