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ELECTION 2021: Polls predict pro-independence majority in Scottish Parliament vote


By Alan Beresford

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THE SNP will gain a slender majority as part of a pro-independence super majority, a poll has found.

Two polls are predicting an SNP majority, but it could be tight..
Two polls are predicting an SNP majority, but it could be tight..

A Panelbase survey for the Sunday Times has found that the SNP would claim 65 seats, the minimum required for an overall majority.

Fellow pro-independence parties the Greens and Alba would secure nine and three respectively, making for an over pro-Yes majority of 25. Nine seats would mark a record return for the Greens.

The poll makes grim reading for Labour and their hopes of reclaiming second spot from the Tories.

Panelbase predict they would remain third but, in doing so, record their worst result in a Scottish Parliament election, losing six seats leaving them with 18.

The Conservatives would also lose seats, taking 28, a loss of three over 2016.

There is better news for the Liberal Democrats, the poll pointing to them increasing their tally by one to six seats.

The survey also found that support for independence sat at 52 per cent, once don't knows were excluded.

Panelbase spoke to 1096 voters between April 28 and 30.

Meanwhile, a poll published by BMG for the Herald that predicted the SNP returning with a larger majority, taking 68 seats.

Alba would gain two MSPs while the Greens also returned nine. If this result were to be duplicated in Thursday's vote, it would mean a pro-independence majority of 29.

The Liberal Democrats would gain two seats, according to BMG, with the Conservatives on 25 and, as with Panelbase, Labour slumping to 18.

The survey produced an even 50-50 split on independence.

The BMG poll asked 1023 Scots of voting age between April 27 and 30.


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